RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
RESEARCHDEPARTMENT.
Internal tools, market intelligence and protocol analysis for the StonkFun ecosystem.
PAIRING SIMULATOR 2.2A
Project returns, with rewards
The Pairing Simulator measures the economics of owning a rewarded project, not merely the movement of its token price. Historical mode uses observed market evidence and actual attributed rewards. Scenario mode uses explicit user assumptions. Reward income is valued when distributed, and every result preserves the distinction between observed evidence and hypothetical outcomes.
Observed period
Returns are normalized percentages; changing a notional starting amount would not change them. This is project-level hypothetical performance, not wallet-level realized earnings.
MATERIALIZED EVIDENCE REQUIRED
INSUFFICIENT DATA
—
Explicit materialized eligibility evidence is required. No legacy return is substituted.
- Raw return
- —
- Observed reward contribution
- — Materialized observed evidence
- Modeled reward contribution
- — None
- Total reward contribution
- —
- Reward-adjusted return
- —
- Observed reward coverage
- —
- Modeled reward coverage
- —
- Confidence
- UNAVAILABLE
- Canonical reconstruction
- WITHHELD
- Methodology
- —
Historical timeline
Chart withheld until an eligibility-aware timeline is included in the materialized read model. Point estimates are not expanded into invented history.
Comparable portfolios
| Portfolio | Start | End | Return | Reward income | Excess vs quote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evidence withheld | No comparison is inferred from a point estimate, conflict, or missing materialization. | ||||
Methodology, values and coverageWhy an estimate is usable — or withheld
Observed and modeled reward contributions remain separate. A directional estimate is never canonical, never unlocks a canonical-only gate, and remains UNVALIDATED until accepted historical calibration exists.
VALUE_AT_PAYOUT remains distinct from CURRENT_VALUE and REALIZED_VALUE. Normal reads use materialized evidence; no request-time provider discovery or reconstruction occurs.